New intelligent models for predicting wax appearance temperature using experimental data - Flow assurance implications

Wax deposition is a major problem during petroleum production causing flow rate reduction and blockage of tubing, pipelines, and surface facilities. Wax deposition occurs when crude oil temperature falls below wax appearance temperature (WAT). WAT is an important parameter for wax deposition modeling and developing, testing, and selecting appropriate wax inhibitors. WAT can be determined in laboratory using several different techniques. Although, each method has its own disadvantages including being time-consuming, expensive, inaccurate, or posing health and safety risks. Experimental WAT data are very scarce in the literature. Reliable and accurate correlations and models for WAT prediction are rare, as well. Hence, development of fast, easy, and reliable models for prediction of WAT is inevitable. The main objective of this research work was to develop and introduce novel intelligent models for precise production of WAT. The artificial intelligent (AI) algorithms used include least-squares support-vector machines (LSSVM), recurrent neural network (RNN), and Adaptive neurofuzzy inference system (ANFIS). A high-quality dataset was assembled using experimental WAT data collected from the literature. The dataset consists of 81 experimental which is the largest dataset ever reported. The gathered dataset covers a wide range of density from 0.71 to 0.89 g/cm3, wax content from 0.61 to 25.78 wt%, and Pour point from -36 to 37 degrees C. The selected input parameters include oil density, wax content, and pour point determined using a rigorous feature selection analysis. Statistical analysis showed that pour point has the highest impact on WAT prediction. The modeling results showed that the LSSVM model is the superior model with coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.9893, a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 0.1655, and an average absolute relative deviation (AARD) of 9%. The LSSVM model outperformed the only existing smart model in terms of both performance and accuracy. The proposed smart model can be used for prediction of WAT which is an essential parameter in all wax related research.