Spatio-temporal evolution and key drivers of global energy structural power

As a strategic resource, energy has become essential to national geopolitical strategies competition over energy structural power between states, and has implications for both their state power and energy security. Using the cross-country input-output data collected from the United Nations, we measure the structural power of energy in each country from 2001 through 2017. We evaluate the evolution of global structural power in energy through spatial structure, network, and the distribution of value added and identify the key drivers of its shift. The study shows that (1) The global energy structural power system was increasingly polarized and volatile and conflicts among energy superpowers gave rise to a big number of shatter belts. (2) We saw the rise of the East and the decline of the West in the trend of the global structural energy power, and China, the United States, and Germany are its major leading forces. Specifically, energy exporting power increasingly shifted to China, whereas energy importing power was further centered in West Europe and North America. (3) The associations of global structural engergy power saw both shrinkage and diffusion: they expanded their coverage in the Asia-Pacific and Eastern Europe whereas decreased their coverage in Western Europe and the United States. (4) The hierarchical order of global energy structural power gradually shifed from dual cores, triple cores, to mutiple cores, and the relationship between different hierarchical orders changed drastically. (5) As for the core chain of energy value flow, energy structural superpowers represented by Germany and the United States led the chain and dominated the distribution of energy value, while small nations in energy production serve as followers and subordinates were stuck in low- end industries. The sections of the energy industrial chain exhibited a U-shaped curve in which energy exploration, mining, processing perform relatively high values, whereas transportation and storage produce relatively low values. (6) The key drivers of national energy structural power gradually shifted from early energy endowment and energy trades to market capitals. We propose corresponding policy advice that fosters the consolidation of China's structural energy power. © 2023 Science Press. All rights reserved.