Evaluating the adaptive capacity of the giant panda in response to climate change since the last glacial maximum

Evaluating the adaptive capacity of species to past climate change is a crucial component in understanding how species respond to climatic shifts. This information serves as a vital foundation for guiding conservation practices under future environmental changes. We reconstructed the potential suitable habitat maps for giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, similar to 22 ka) and mid-Holocene (MH, similar to 6 ka) climates via an ensemble species distribution modelling approach, and compared them to the potential suitable habitats at current stage, we also estimated and compared the bioclimatic velocity of giant pandas to the climatic velocities since LGM. The results showed that the suitable habitat area for giant pandas has increased by 12.47 % from LGM to MH, and then decreased by 5.37 % from MH to current stage. The estimated climatic velocity over the suitable habitats for giant pandas was 16.00 +/- 5.83 km center dot kyr(-1) from LGM to MH and 46.13 +/- 18.96 km center dot kyr(-1) from MH to nowadays. The bioclimatic velocities for these two periods were 0.55 +/- 0.55 km center dot kyr(-1) and 8.47 +/- 10.45 km center dot kyr(-1), respectively. The result indicated that giant pandas have successfully adapted to the climate changes since LGM by migrating at a rate that lags behind the speed of climate change within their current distribution range. However, this does not imply that giant pandas possess sufficient migratory capabilities to cope with future climate crises, as the current rate of climate change exceeds that of any historical periods.