Transition pathway for China to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060

被引：0
|
作者：
Luo S. [1 ]
Hu W. [1 ]
Liu W. [2 ]
Zhang Z. [1 ]
Bai C. [3 ]
Du Y. [1 ]
Huang Q. [1 ]
Chen Z. [4 ]
机构：
[1] Key Laboratory of Wide-area Measurement and Control on Power System of Sichuan Province, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu
[2] Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht
[3] School of Management and Economics, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu
[4] Department of Energy Technology, Aalborg University, Aalborg
来源：
Zhongguo Kexue Jishu Kexue/Scientia Sinica Technologica | 2024年 / 54卷 / 01期
关键词：
carbon neutrality; China’s energy system; energy system planning; low-carbon transition; renewable energy;
D O I：
10.1360/SST-2022-0041
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
Faced with the pressure of global warming, China has pledged to peak its CO2 emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. Realizing the carbon-neutral transition of the energy system under the contradiction between economic growth and CO2 emission reduction is an urgent and realistic problem. This study proposes a methodology for constructing a carbon-neutral energy system that considers renewable energy, energy conservation, and electrification potential in the energy sector and emissions from industrial processes. Based on the proposed methodology, this study takes China’s energy system as an example and formulates a business-as-usual pathway, three low-carbon transition pathways according to the 2°C warming goal, 1.5°C warming goal, and the carbon-neutral goal to explore the feasibility of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 and the corresponding technical support and cost requirements. In terms of energy supply and technological applications, China’s energy system can realize all the emission-reduction goals by 2060 or even earlier with renewable energy sources and energy conservations pushed to the maximum constraints. The results show that the low-carbon transition can help improve the economy of the future energy system. Compared with the business-as-usual pathway, the 2°C and 1.5°C pathways can reduce the energy system costs by 19.2% and 21.1%, respectively, in 2060. Despite the large-scale introduction of renewable and carbon capture technologies in the carbon-neutral pathway, its cost is only 86.4% of the business-as-usual pathway. In addition, this study discusses several key issues, including biomass use, cross-sectoral technologies, and carbon capture technology deployment. To sum up, the carbon-neutral energy system construction methodology proposed in this paper can be applied in any region to build low-carbon transition pathways for the local energy system and provide reliable and effective support to achieve the emission-reduction targets. © 2024 Chinese Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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页码：43 / 64
页数：21
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