Determinants of spatiotemporal changes of land use carbon emissions for counties in Shaanxi Province, China

In China, urban sprawl and developed land expansion challenge the country’s “carbon peak” and “carbon neutrality” goals. Counties as the basic governance units are crucial for effective carbon reduction policies. This study examines land use carbon emissions (LUCE) in Shaanxi Province at the county level, essential for China’s low-carbon strategy. Analyzing data from 107 counties between 2000 and 2020, we found that developed land, though increasing, is the primary carbon source with a slowing growth rate. The Conversion of Cropland to Forests and Grasslands national policy mitigated the impact on carbon absorption. Carbon emissions displayed positive autocorrelation and spatial heterogeneity, varying across the region. Using the Spatial Durbin Error Model, we linked county-level emissions to GDP per capita, population, urbanization rate, and research and development expenditure for direct and indirect influence. These factors correlate with fossil fuel use and high-quality industrial development. Promoting public transits and reducing private car use are vital for achieving local and regional low-carbon goals.