Probabilistic analysis on static ice load of offshore structures in ice zone

The probabilistic properties of static ice load on offshore platforms in ice zone are investigated by using Monte-Carol method. A new concept of equivalent ice load is introduced in consideration of the combination effect of both ice thickness and ice strength in the estimation of design loading for offshore structures. Taking four typical stations in Liaodong Bay of Bohai Sea as examples, the statistic properties of some important factors related with ice load are discussed, and probabilistic distribution parameters of equivalent ice load for the regions near to the four stations are determined. The influence of ice thickness and temperature on equivalent ice loads is assessed. Simulation results show that probabilistic equivalent ice load may be described by Weibull distribution. In addition, ice loads calculated with extreme values of ice parameters are much more conservative than those by Monte-Carlo method. It is suggested that equivalent ice load based on Monte-Carlo simulation can be used as loading design in engineering application.