Long-term collision risk prediction for low earth orbit satellite constellations

In the light of recent changes to planned Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite constellation designs and enhancements made to the DERA IDES model, we have conducted a new study on long-term debris environment evolution. This includes the collision interactions of constellation systems with the orbital debris environment over the next 50 years. In this new study, we use the IDES model to simulate long-term evolution in four 'business as usual' future traffic scenarios, which differ by the presence and absence of foreseen satellite constellation traffic and debris mitigation measures. The IDES model is capable of taking high spatial resolution snapshots of the debris flux environment at regular time intervals. By accessing these snapshots, the IDES model is able to predict the long-term variation of debris flux incident on a specific target orbit. This technique is harnessed to predict the average debris flux trends for a typical LEO constellation satellite. Furthermore, we estimate the average debris-induced satellite failure rates for a whole constellation system. Finally, we discuss our new findings on the long-term effects of constellations on the debris environment and vice versa.