Blockchain Technology Adoption by Critical Stakeholders in Prefabricated Construction Supply Chain Based on Evolutionary Game and System Dynamics

Blockchain technology (BT) is a promising solution to address information asymmetry and trust issues in the prefabricated construction supply chain (PCSC). However, its practical application in PCSC remains limited under the influence of stakeholders' adoption strategies. While previous studies have analyzed drivers and barriers to BT adoption, they often take a static view, neglecting the long-term dynamic decision-making interactions between stakeholders. This study addresses this gap by examining the interests of owners, general contractors, and subcontractors, and by developing a tripartite evolutionary game model to analyze the interaction mechanism of the strategy of adopting BT in PCSC. Additionally, a system dynamics simulation validates the evolution of stabilization strategies and examines the impact of key parameters. The results indicate that successful BT adoption requires technology maturity to surpass a threshold between 0.5 and 0.7, along with a fair revenue and cost-sharing coefficient between general contractors and subcontractors, ranging from 0.3 to 0.5 at the lower limit and 0.7 to 0.9 at the upper limit. Notably, general contractors play a pivotal role in driving BT adoption, acting as potential leaders. Furthermore, appropriate incentives, default compensation, and government subsidies can promote optimal adoption strategies, although overly high incentives may reduce owners' willingness to mandate BT adoption. This study provides practical insights and policy recommendations for critical stakeholders to facilitate the widespread adoption of BT in PCSC.