An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Urbanization and Consumption Structure Upgrading on Carbon Emissions in Fujian Province

This paper analyzes the theoretical mechanism by which urbanization and consumption structure upgrading exert an impact on carbon emissions in the context of promoting higher quality and efficiency in urbanization, advancing the transition and upgrading of consumption structure, and achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality(“dual carbon”) goals. By establishing an extended STIRPAT model and an intermediary model, this paper takes nine prefecture-level cities in Fujian Province from 2011 to 2021 as samples to investigate the effects of urbanization and consumption structure upgrading on carbon emission reduction in Fujian Province, revealing the interrelationship and transmission mechanism among the three. The results of this study show that:(i) The relationship between urbanization and carbon emissions in Fujian Province from 2011 to 2021 shows an inverted U-shaped curve, i.e. urbanization accelerated carbon emissions in the early stage and inhibited carbon emissions in the later stage;(ii) the regional heterogeneity analysis shows that under the current urbanization background, the upgrading of consumption structure in western and southern Fujian can significantly reduce carbon emissions, while the relationship between consumption structure upgrading and carbon emission reduction in eastern Fujian is not significant;(iii)the upgrading of consumption structure can help achieve and promote carbon emission reduction through increasing the proportions of the tertiary industry and immaterial consumption and enhancing the level of culture and education, while exerting little effect on carbon emission reduction through consumption in transportation, communication and health care.