Optimization of railway route scheme based on comparison of multi-grey models and cumulative prospect theory

In order to accurately select the railway route scheme under the condition of uncertain construction time, aiming at the deterministic analysis method can only carry out static analysis on the decision-making situation and ignores the deficiency of the influence of human irrational subjective consciousness. A cumulative prospect theory model of multi-gray model comparison was constructed to optimize the railway route scheme at different time points in this paper. The actual value wassimulated by multiple models, and the model with the highest simulation accuracy would beselected to predict the grey index in the optimization decision index system. Based on the cumulative prospect theory, this paper analyzedthe uncertain influence of man-made irrational factors on the scheme optimization decision, established a constrained nonlinear model for maximizing the dynamic index weight of the cumulative comprehensive prospect value of each scheme, and obtained the comprehensive prospect value of each railway routes scheme by solving the model. Based on this, the optimal decision was made to the railway route scheme. The example showed that when the cumulative prospect theory of multi-gray model wasused to make the optimal decision of multi-time point railway scheme, the optimal scheme changedfrom the 4# scheme in 2023 to the 2# scheme in 2025. It shows that the dynamic change of grey index affects the dominant relationship between schemes at different time points. It proves that the cumulative prospect theory has a strong processing capacity for this kind of multi-objective optimization decision-making problem with time-varying situations, and the analysis results are more scientific and reasonable. © 2021, Central South University Press. All rights reserved.