Mayo Clinic Validation of the AUA Risk Groups for Localized Renal Cell Carcinoma

Purpose: The AUA guidelines introduced a new risk group stratification system based primarily on tumor stage and grade to guide surveillance for patients treated surgically for localized renal cell carcinoma (RCC). We sought to evaluate the predictive ability of these risk groups using progression-free survival (PFS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS), and to compare their performance to that of our published institutional risk models. Materials and Methods: We queried our Nephrectomy Registry to identify adults treated with radical or partial nephrectomy for unilateral, M0, clear cell RCC, or papillary RCC from 1980 to 2012. The AUA stratification does not apply to other RCC subtypes as tumor grading for other RCC, such as chromophobe, is not routinely performed. PFS and CSS were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Predictive abilities were evaluated using C indexes from Cox proportional hazards regression models. Results: A total of 3191 patients with clear cell RCC and 633 patients with papillary RCC were included. For patients with clear cell RCC, C indexes for the AUA risk groups and our model were 0.780 and 0.815, respectively (P < .001) for PFS, and 0.811 and 0.857, respectively (P < .001), for CSS. For patients with papillary RCC, C indexes for the AUA risk groups and our model were 0.775 and 0.751, respectively (P = .002) for PFS, and 0.830 and 0.803, respectively (P = .2) for CSS. Conclusions: The AUA stratification is a parsimonious system for categorizing RCC that provides C indexes of about 0.80 for PFS and CSS following surgery for localized clear cell and papillary RCC.