The Impact of Global Value Chains Participation on Carbon Emissions: New Evidence from Manufacturing Industries in Belt and Road Initiative Countries

The emergence of global value chains (GVCs) has fundamentally reshaped the manufacturing landscape in these countries, which also exerts a profound impact on carbon emissions. This paper takes 35 BRI countries as a representative example of developed and developing nations, and selects panel data of their manufacturing industries from 2007 to 2019 to empirically investigate the impact of the participation of manufacturing in GVCs on carbon emissions. The results show that an increase in the forward participation of manufacturing industries in GVCs can significantly reduce carbon emissions, while the enhancement of backward participation does not have the same effect. The spatial spillover effects analysis reveals that there is a significant positive spatial spillover effect of carbon emissions within the manufacturing industries of BRI countries. In addition, an increase in the forward participation of neighboring countries also leads to a slightly reduction in their own carbon emissions. The findings in this paper can serve a valuable reference for policymakers seeking to enhance regional economic exchange and cooperation by leveraging the reconfiguration of global value chain so as to achieve the common goal of reducing carbon emissions.