Projected twenty-first-century changes in climate-driven waves in the Gulf of Guinea

This study offers insights into the wave climate of the Gulf of Guinea (GoG) and its past and future trends under various climate change scenarios. Using linear regression and difference analysis, it examines changes in average and extreme wave heights (Hs), wave periods (Tm), and wave directions (Dm) across the GoG. The findings reveal a consistent increase in both average and extreme Hs, with a more pronounced increase in extreme Hs during the rainy season. An increase in extreme Hs of over 7 cm is accompanied by an increase in Tm, indicating stronger wave energy. A projected clockwise shift in wave direction of over 2 degrees is expected for extreme wave conditions by the 2100. The study highlights the complex interplay of factors influencing wave climate, including distant swell systems. It concludes by emphasising the importance of proactive measures to mitigate potential risks associated with changing wave climate in the GoG.