Agricultural land conversion: trends and drivers in Dhading, Nepal

The increasing trend of transforming fertile land for non-agricultural uses, particularly at the rural-urban interface and city outskirts, has seriously threatened food security in developing countries. However, in an agrarian nation like, Nepal where productive land is minimal due to its challenging geographical terrain, the agricultural land transformation trend and its motivating factors have not been extensively studied. This study emphasizes the shifting land use patterns and factors shaping farmers' choices for conversion of farmland into non-farm uses in Dhading, Nepal. Land use land cover data analysis revealed that productive agricultural land decreased by 60.28% while non-farm use of land increased by 93.14% in Dhunibeshi Municipality, Dhading between 2013 and 2022. Further analysis using farm-level cross-sectional data shows that 36% of the households are eager to switch from farming to non-farm use. The results from econometric models indicate that socio-economic factors (gender, education, economically active family members, land proportion), vegetable farm attributes (farm income, crop diversification), farm proximity to urban areas, and non-farm firms, and land conversion proposal collectively influence farmers' decisions regarding agricultural land use change. Promoting widespread adoption of low-cost production technology and making the agriculture sector lucrative could contribute towards sustainable agricultural land management in the future.