Not More, But More Assured: Optimising US Nuclear Posture

The Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States has urged Washington to adopt new measures to maintain a credible nuclear deterrent against Russia and China in a deteriorating security environment. Any effort by the United States to match its two nuclear peers warhead for warhead, delivery system for delivery system, would be costly folly, potentially reprising the Cold War arms race. A qualitative rather than quantitative response may well be more effective. Developing nuclear-capable hypersonic glide vehicles and cruise missiles, though challenging, would improve Washington's ability to shape an opponent's decision calculus and reduce its capacity to pursue deterrence by denial. These systems would also enhance the United States' ability to hold at risk multiple high-value, well-defended targets and reinforce planners' confidence in retaliatory strikes. Finally, a qualitative focus would enable the US to argue more credibly for quantitative limitations at levels similar to or lower than those existing today.