Research on the International Competitiveness and Sustainable Trade Development of the Key Equipment and Components of China's High-Speed Rail

The high-speed rail industry (from now on referred to as HSR) in China is flourishing, and improvements in its international competitiveness and the sustainable development of trade are gradually attracting international attention. This study examined data related to trade between major countries producing and importing key HSR equipment and components from 2013 to 2022. The International Competitiveness Index, Trade Complementarity Index, and Trade Integration Index were used to study the international competitiveness of the key equipment and components of China's HSR, as well as the bilateral trade complementarity between China and other HSR powers. It also studied the degree of bilateral trade integration between China and these HSR powers, as well as that between China and the "Belt and Road" countries. Then, the ARIMA model was established by using Python 3.9.5 software to predict the degree of trade integration between China and the above countries from 2023 to 2027. The results show the following: (1) Some of the key equipment and components of China's HSR have international competitiveness, but some have shortcomings. (2) China and HSR powers have both trade competition and trade complementarity in the field of key equipment and components. (3) The trade integration of key HSR equipment and components between China and countries along the "Belt and Road" is high. Overall, after ten years of development, China's HSR industry had improved by 2022. The HSR market in the "Belt and Road" countries is the market that China's HSR industry must focus on for sustainable development in the future.