Reliability sensitivity analysis for water hammer-induced stress failure of fluid-conveying pipe

The water hammer, resulting from sudden valve closures or similar operations, is a primary cause of leakage and damage in fluid-conveying pipe systems. This work aims to investigate the reliability sensitivity of fluid-conveying pipes under the water hammer. A reliability model for the fluid-conveying straight pipe, involving uncertainty and fluid-structure interaction, is developed based on the stress-strength interference theory. Then the method of characteristics is employed to analyze the nonlinear behaviors of the pipe. To avoid excessive model evaluations, the Kriging surrogate strategy is used to evaluate rapidly the statistics of nonlinear responses. Furthermore, the Kriging model coupled with the single-loop Monte Carlo simulation is presented for estimating reliability sensitivity indices. The accuracy of results is verified by the Monte Carlo simulation. The results reveal that the proposed method is feasible for the reliability sensitivity analysis of fluid-conveying pipe under the water hammer. Moreover, the wall thickness has the most obvious influence on stress failure, followed by the inner radius, while the pipe length, Young's modulus, density of the pipe material, and Poisson ratio show a low effect. This work can not only guide the safety design of pipe but also enrich the theory and application of statistical analysis and reliability sensitivity evaluation for liquid-conveying pipe systems.