Pathway dissection for inter-provincial transfer of pollutants and offsetting mechanisms across China

Understanding the transfer of embodied emissions along trade chains is crucial for promoting sustainable economic development. Here, we constructed the provincial inventory of emissions of 6 typical air/aquatic/solid pollutants (SO2, NOX, Dust, COD, NH3-N, and Solid wastes) via a multiple regional input-output (MRIO) model. We quantified the emissions responsibilities from both producer and consumer perspectives, adopting the 'Beneficiaries are responsible' principle for allocation. Further, we calculated appropriate payments or subsidies for each province's emissions using the slacks-based Data Envelope Analysis (SBM-DEA), aiming to provide a fair and transparent reference for China's current fiscal transfer payment system. Our findings revealed significant progress in emission reductions between 2012 and 2017 by 36.64%-66.49% excluding Solid wastes. Provinces within the Yangtze River Delta and Guangdong were the primary emitters at the consumption end, while provinces in Central, Western, and Northeastern China bore the brunt of embodied emissions through trade at the production end. In 2012, a dominant emission transfer was from developed to undeveloped provinces. However, by 2017, a new trend emerged, with emissions being transferred between provinces with similar levels of financial development. The secondary industry was the largest adsorber for the emission transfer, and reductions in emissions from this sector benefited the output of provinces who experienced rapid development during 2012-2017. Based on the offsetting calculated by this work, the current transfer payments system in China is not fair for some provinces who paid more or accepted less than they deserved. Some provinces should take a more active gesture in pursing their development instead of relying upon the transfer which they do not deserve. This study provides a comprehensive understanding of emissions from various perspectives, highlighting changes in inter-provincial and inter-industrial transfer pathways, which was valuable for multi-regional management efforts aimed at aligning national economic development with ecological conservation goals.