The Late Bronze-Early Iron Age transition in Canaan: new insights from Bayesian modelling of radiocarbon dates

Scholars have used the emergence of Philistine material culture and the destruction of Canaanite palatial centres as key anchors to archaeologically define the transition from the Late Bronze to the Early Iron Age in Canaan. They have not always, however, agreed on the absolute chronology of these events and its relationship with the historical record. Various hypotheses have been put forward, placing them before, during, or after, the collapse of Egyptian rule and its withdrawal from the region, potentially around 1170-1130 BC. Traditional 'historicist' approaches to establishing a chronology for the theoretically linked archaeological layers, have often relied on the assumption that ceramic styles, such as diagnostic artefacts, developed and declined uniformly across different sites. This synchronicity was presumed to mirror historical events as recorded in textual sources - arrival of 'Sea Peoples' and the palatial system's violent collapse. Such a perspective may, however, over simplify the complex regional variations and temporal nuances inherent in the archaeological data. Analysis of multiple radiocarbon datasets from Levantine sites reveals that destructive events and shifts in material culture were not synchronous across the region. Bayesian statistical modelling of these datasets indicates that the timing of such occurrences was influenced by unique local factors, rather than following a uniform regional pattern. The absence of Late Helladic IIIC Aegean-like wares at many sites indicates a geographically restricted production and distribution. Datasets from places where such ware appears reflect the likelihood that their production and exchange occurred from the 13th century to c. 1050 BC. Conversely, the majority of destructive events at key Levantine centres appear to be concentrated within a narrower timeframe, c. 1150-1100 BC. That is, although manifesting at different times and to different degrees of intensity across the region, Philistine presence in the Levant predated most of the Late Bronze Age III destruction events.