Does crime type matter in understanding the nexus between universal credit and crime? Evidence from England and Wales

Motivated by a seemingly negative correlation between universal credit and crime in England and Wales, we present a novel theoretical framework of crime and welfare spending, where crime-specific human capital-induced heterogeneity exists between criminal activities. This provides a theoretical basis to three empirically testable propositions. We evaluate these using county-level data for 10 different crime types. We find significant heterogeneity across different crime types in affecting the crime-universal credit nexus. Notably, criminal damage and arson exhibit both positive level and introductory effects, implying these to be human capital dependent, whereas public disorder and weapons possession exhibit a negative crime-universal credit nexus.