Mapping the flows of ecosystem service values in the global land market: The winners and losers of large-scale land acquisitions

Ecosystem services support human society at both local and global scale. The globalization of supply chains led to proliferating ecosystem markets around the world. Biocapacity - the provision of biomass-based resources like food, fibers and the CO2 removal from atmosphere - of land-based ecosystems is particularly involved due to the nature of the services it provides. Since large scale-land acquisitions (LSLAs) commonly involve ecosystems or land located in the Global South and investors in the Global North, they may lead to the displacement of the benefits deriving from such ecosystems and their biocapacity. Previous studies investigated the LSLAs' consequences in terms of ecological degradation. However, more research is needed for measuring the associated inequalities in order to track the global drivers of such degradation. This study aims to fill this knowledge gap by measuring net gains and losses of ecosystem service value linked with LSLAs by superseding the common approach and considering the involved countries' biocapacity. The key novelty consists in backtracking the offmarket value chain, which is an aspect so far unexplored among LSLAs studies. By focusing on the biocapacity economic value, we reveal that the growing trend in LSLAs is coupled with loss of benefits for the countries ceding land. The analysis captures the effect of the 2008 crisis which triggered more transactions, as well as the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic, which exacerbated the already existing loss. Our analysis reveals that for every hectare of cropland acquired through international land markets in 2021, 15,000 US $ were lost, while for forest the loss amounted to 5000 US $ per hectare. Finally, we reveal that developing countries' presence is growing among the expanding pool of investors, mostly acquiring from other developing countries.