The Impact of Land Transfer on Sustainable Agricultural Development from the Perspective of Green Total Factor Productivity

China's agricultural sector is transitioning from extensive management to intensive management, and land transfer brings about changes in land use and management methods, which may encourage the agricultural sector to enter a sustainable development track, but this mechanism has not been effectively proven. Using the SBM-GML index to construct a green total factor productivity index to measure the level of sustainable agricultural development in each province (or autonomous region or municipality directly under the central government) and provincial panel data from 2010 to 2022, we applied a panel interactive fixed-effects model to empirically test the impact of land transfer on sustainable agricultural development, with a focus on analyzing the heterogeneity and related mechanisms of this impact. The results indicate that (1) land transfer significantly promotes sustainable agricultural development, and this conclusion still held true after robustness tests such as controlling for regional omitted variables, replacing dependent variables, changing the sample size, IV estimation, and GMM estimation. (2) The mechanism testing found that land transfer mainly promotes sustainable agricultural development by increasing the desirable output, and has no significant effect on reducing non-point source pollution. At the same time, land transfer mainly improves the desirable output through factor allocation effects rather than scale operation effects, thereby promoting sustainable agricultural development. (3) The heterogeneity analysis found that the higher the quantile of agricultural development level is, the weaker the role of land transfer in promoting sustainable agricultural development, indicating that land transfer has a greater impact on areas with poor agricultural development foundations, and areas with poor agricultural development foundations are more likely to obtain sustainable development space through land transfer. The impact of different land transfer methods and land transfer objects on sustainable agricultural development was heterogeneous. Compared with non-market transfer methods such as exchange and transfer, market-oriented transfer methods such as leasing and equity had a more significant impact on sustainable agricultural development. Compared to transferring land to ordinary farmers, transferring land to new business entities such as family farms, professional cooperatives, and enterprises can significantly promote sustainable agricultural development.