NATO and Ukraine: The Peril of Indecision

Despite the unprecedented level of cooperation and support behind defending Ukraine, no criteria or timeline for Ukraine's accession to NATO were established at the July 2024 NATO summit in Washington. Meanwhile, the window for Ukraine's accession may be closing as NATO member states become more risk averse and transatlantic support for Ukraine more brittle. Establishing the sequence of developments that would make membership ripe would at least restore NATO's control over the process. NATO could explicitly frame the membership option as integral to ending the war and bringing security and stability to the region. Senior officials would need to present a clear account of how and under what assumptions Ukraine's membership in NATO could come about. The West Germany model, though it would not be easy to digest or implement, remains the most plausible one.