Retrospective Analysis of Severe Dengue by Dengue Virus Serotypes in a Population with Social Security, Mexico 2023

Background: Risk factors for severe dengue manifestations have been attributed to various factors, including specific serotypes, sex, and age. Mexico has seen the re-emergence of DENV-3, which has not circulated in a decade. Objective: To describe dengue serotypes by age, sex, and their association with disease severity in dengue-positive serum samples from epidemiological surveillance system units. Materials and Methods: A descriptive analysis was conducted to evaluate the frequency of dengue severity by sex, age, disease quarter, geographical location, and dengue virus serotypes. The study was conducted using laboratory samples from confirmed dengue cases through RT-qPCR from the epidemiological surveillance laboratory network of the Mexican Social Security Institute, Mexico. Simple frequencies and proportions were calculated using the z-test for proportional differences between groups. Bivariate analysis with adjusted Chi2 was performed, and binary logistic regression models were constructed using the forward Wald method considering the model's predictive capacity. The measure of association was the odds ratio, with 95% confidence intervals. Statistical significance was set to an alpha level of <0.05. Results: In 2023, 10,441 samples were processed for dengue RT-qPCR at the IMSS, with a predominance of serotype DENV-3 (64.4%). The samples were mostly from women (52.0%) and outpatient cases (63.3%). The distribution of dengue severity showed significant variations by age, with a lower proportion of severe cases in young children and a higher proportion in the 5- to 14-year-old group. Hospitalizations increased significantly with severity. Warm regions had more cases overall and severity. Cases were most frequent from July to September. While DENV-2 was associated with severity, DENV-4 was not. Binary regression identified higher risk in women, age extremes, and DENV-2, with an overall predictive model of 58.5%. Conclusions: Women, age groups at the extremes of life, and the DENV-2 serotype presented severe risk of dengue in a population with social security in Mexico during 2023.