Early Family Formation, Selective Migration, and Childhood Conditions in Rural America☆

Thirty years ago, rural Americans got married and had children at significantly younger ages than urban Americans. More recent data indicate that these differences persist today, but our understanding of what drives these differences remains limited. To address this gap, we (1) generate Kaplan-Meier estimates of the ages of the first marriage, first union, and first birth among those who lived in rural and urban areas in 2019, (2) evaluate the extent to which rural-urban differences in the timing of family formation reflect selective migration, (3) assess whether rural-urban differences in childhood SES and demographic characteristics further explain differences in timing, and (4) explore rural-urban differences by gender. We find substantial 4.3, 3.8, and 5.1-year gaps in the ages at which rural and urban women marry, start unions, and become parents, respectively. These gaps largely do not reflect selective migration. Differences in women's age of first birth are attributable to differences in childhood conditions, yet differences in marital and union timing remain unexplained. Rural-urban gaps in the timing of family formation are much larger among women than among men. These patterns of early family formation in rural America have critical implications for families' and children's well-being as well as rural depopulation.