POPULATION DECLINE AND POPULATION AGEING IN CROATIA: THE EFFECT ON ENERGY CONSUMPTION

Residential energy consumption accounts for a significant share in global energy consumption. Despite great technological advancements in energy efficiency, global energy consumption is expected to rise around 60 percent by 2040 compared to 2010. One of the background factors is demographic change, namely demographic ageing. It has been shown that an individual's age has a strong positive correlation with energy consumption. Given the changing age structure of the population, particularly in developed countries, demographic ageing will have several implications on energy consumption. The case of Croatia is rather interesting: there are two ongoing population processes with differing effects on energy consumption. Croatia is witnessing both population decline and population ageing. Since ageing is positively correlated to energy consumption, it is not clear whether future energy consumption will rise given the intensity of population decline. Utilising Bayesian population projections and simulated age-specific and gender-specific energy consumption, this paper projects the effects of population ageing and population decline on total energy consumption in Croatia.