Decomposition and scenario analysis of agricultural carbon emissions in Heilongjiang, China

Background. As a key agricultural region in China, Heilongjiang Province has experienced significant carbon emissions over the past few decades. To understand the underlying factors and future trends in these emissions, a comprehensive analysis was conducted from 1993 to 2030. Methods. The agricultural carbon emissions from 1993 to 2020 were estimated using the emission factor method. To analyze the influencing factors and future trends of these emissions, the study employed the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) and integrated it with the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model. Results. Results showed that (1) the agricultural carbon emissions in Heilongjiang were primarily driven by rice cultivation, followed by fertilizer production and irrigation electricity. (2) The economic and labor structure effects were the main driving factors of agricultural carbon emissions, while the population, demographic, and intensity effects were the main inhibitors. (3) Agricultural carbon emissions in Heilongjiang Province peaked in 2016 with 69.6 Mt CO2-eq and could subsequently decline by -3.92% to -4.52% between 2020 and 2030 in different scenario simulations. In the future, Heilongjiang Province should prioritize the reduction of agricultural carbon emissions from rice production. Adjusting the planting structure, managing the layout of rice paddies, and promoting the cultivation of dry rice varieties would significantly contribute to mitigating agricultural carbon emissions.