Influence of climate variability and land cover dynamics on the spatio-temporal NDVI patterns in western hydrological regions of Bangladesh

Analyzing vegetation greenness considering climate and land cover changes is crucial for Bangladesh given the historically drier North-West and South-West regions of Bangladesh have shown prominent climatic and hydrological variations. Therefore, this study assessed the spatial and temporal variation of NDVI and its relationship with climate and land cover changes from 2000 to 2022 for these regions. In this study, Moran's I and Getis Ord Gi* were employed for spatial autocorrelation and Mann-Kendall, Sen's slope test along with Innovative Trend Analysis were deployed to identify temporal trends of NDVI. RMSE, MAE and R-squared values were assessed between computed and observed PET. Correlation of NDVI with climate variables were assessed through multivariate correlation analysis and correlation mapping. Additionally, Pearson product moment correlation was applied between different types of land cover and NDVI. Spatial autocorrelation outcomes showed that NDVI values have been clustered in distinct hotspots and cold-spots over the years. Temporal trend detection results indicate that NDVI values are rising significantly all over the regions. Multivariate correlation analysis identified no climate variable to be the limiting factor for NDVI changes. Similarly, the precipitation-NDVI correlation map displayed no significant correlation. Nonetheless, temperature-NDVI correlation map illustrated varying degrees of mostly moderate and strong positive correlations with distinct negative correlation results in the Sundarbans of South-West region. Land cover pattern analysis with NDVI showed a positive correlation to forest, cropland and vegetation area increasing and negative correlation to grassland and barren area decreasing. In this regard, Rangpur division exhibited stronger correlations than Rajshahi division in North-West. The findings indicate that NDVI changes in the regions are largely dependent on land cover changes in comparison to climate trends. This can instigate further research in other hydrological regions to explore the natural and man-made factors that can affect the greenery and vegetation density in specific regions.