Reach-Based Extrapolation to Assess the Ice-Jam Flood Hazard of an Ungauged River Reach along the Mackenzie River, Canada

Many communities along rivers in the Northwest Territories do not have water-level gauges, making flood hazard analyses difficult at these sites. These include the communities of Jean Marie River, Tulita and Fort Good Hope on the Mackenzie River, Nahanni Butte on the Liard River and Fort McPherson on the Peel River. However, gauges do exist at other sites upstream and downstream of these communities, from which flood hazard assessments can be extrapolated to the ungauged communities. Reach-based extrapolation becomes particularly challenging when analysing ice-jam flood hazards since data sparsity is an additional challenge at these locations. A simple empirical approach using non-dimensional stage and discharge was implemented, which allowed only a minimum of the required data from all sites to be extracted. From the gauged sites, water-surface elevations and slopes from digital elevation models, channel widths, thalweg elevations and ice thicknesses from under-ice flow measurement surveys and recorded water levels were obtained. As a test case, results from the gauged reach of Fort Simpson were extrapolated to the ungauged reach of Jean Marie River and are presented in this technical note.