Research on Carbon Emissions Estimation in Key Industries Based on the Electricity-Energy-Carbon Model: A Case Study of Henan Province

This study focuses on the carbon emissions of key industries in Henan Province, employing techniques of seasonal adjustment, frequency transformation, and statistical modeling to construct an industry-level "Electricity-Energy-Carbon" model to aid in the high-frequency monitoring of carbon emissions in the province's industries. Based on relevant data, this research performs high-frequency calculations of carbon emissions from energy consumption in 34 typical industries and from the production processes of 53 typical sub-categories in the industrial sector of Henan. The findings reveal the following: Firstly, industrial energy consumption in Henan accounts for over half of the total provincial energy consumption, with most months seeing proportions around 60%. Industries such as energy, non-ferrous metals, building materials, steel, chemicals, petrochemicals, and paper making contribute to over 80% of the industrial energy consumption's carbon emissions, often nearing 90% in most months. Secondly, among the major industries, such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, building materials, and steel, there is a dual challenge of being restricted under the "high energy consumption and high emissions" project while also being required to build key industrial bases, leading to fluctuating trends in historical annual carbon emissions data. Thirdly, six sub-categories, namely plastic products, cement, flat glass, steel, ten types of non-ferrous metals, and alumina, have significant carbon emissions in their production processes, accounting for about 72.3% of the total production-related emissions.