A sample robust optimal bidding model for a virtual power plant

In many energy markets, the trade amount of electricity must be committed to before the actual supply. This study explores one consecutive operational challenge for a virtual power plant-the optimal bidding for highly uncertain distributed energy resources in a day -ahead electricity market. The optimal bidding problem is formulated as a scenario -based multi -stage stochastic optimization model. However, the scenario -tree approach raises two consequent issues-scenario overfitting and massive computation cost. This study addresses the issues by deploying a sample robust optimization approach with linear decision rules. A tractable robust counterpart is derived from the model where the uncertainty appears in a nonlinear objective and constraints. By applying the decision rules to the balancing policy, the original model can be reduced to a two -stage stochastic mixed -integer programming model and then efficiently solved by adopting a dual decomposition method combined with heuristics. Based on real -world business data, a numerical experiment is conducted with several benchmark models. The results verify the superior performance of our proposed approach based on increased out -of -sample profits and decreased overestimation of in -sample profits.