An Estimation of the Prevalence of Smoking and e-Cigarette Use among US Adults If Menthol Cigarettes and Flavored Cigars Are Banned

Introduction: People's reaction to the FDA's ban on flavored cigarettes and cigars may be modified by a concurrent ban on flavored e-cigarettes. We aim to estimate the prevalence of smoking and e-cigarette use among U.S. adults under various ban scenarios. Methods: We collected the reactions of people who used cigarettes, cigars, and e-cigarettes reactions to three hypothetical ban scenarios, (1) restricting menthol cigarettes and flavored cigars only, or (2) further restricting e-cigarettes with any flavors except menthol or tobacco, or (3) further restricting e-cigarettes with all flavors. The above data were analyzed to identify determinants of reactions and to estimate and calibrate the probabilities of quitting and switching to non-flavored cigarettes and cigars. Afterward, the probabilities were applied to 2018-2019 TUS-CPS respondents to estimate the prevalence of smoking and e-cigarette use. Results: Compared with the baseline, the prevalence of smoking decreased from 12.6% to 10.5%, and e-cigarette use increased from 2.6% to 3.8% in Scenario No.1. In Scenario No.2 and No.3, the prevalence of smoking was 10.5% and 10.7%, and the prevalence of e-cigarette use were 3.1% and 2.4%, respectively. For black people, the prevalence of smoking decreased from 14.2% in baseline to 8.1%-8.8% in three scenarios. Conclusions: The result indicated that for a ban on menthol cigarettes and flavored cigars, a concurrent ban on flavored e-cigarettes with an exemption of menthol flavor could be more effective in encouraging people to quit smoking. Black people may see a disproportionate benefit from all ban scenarios compared with other race/ethics groups.