The long-run effects of recessions on fertility

Using large repeated cross-sections and a cohort-based econometric approach, this paper produces evidence that women who finish their formal education during periods of high unemployment have significantly, and persistently, lower fertility compared to women who graduate during more favorable economic conditions. In terms of magnitude, a woman who graduates into a market with a 3 percentage point higher unemployment rate experiences an approximate 14% reduction in birth probabilities about a half-decade later. The long-recognized negative effects of unemployment on marriage explain, at most, 30% of that reduction in fertility. Rather, graduating into high unemployment appears to exert its own influence on fertility, separate from its effect on marriage.