Decomposition, decoupling and dynamic prediction of carbon emissions from city-level building operations: a case study of the Yangtze River Delta

Reducing carbon emissions in the building sector is crucial to achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals. Identifying the influencing factors of carbon emissions from building operations at the city level and predicting carbon peaks is of great significance for developing locally adapted policies. This article examines the spatial and temporal trends of carbon emissions at the building operation stage in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region over the last 15 years. This article analyzes the driving factors at a city level using the GDIM method and evaluates the decoupling status of income growth and carbon emissions with the GDIM-based decoupling model. The peak time and peak value of operational carbon emissions in the YRD region are predicted through a combination of scenario analysis and the Monte Carlo method. The research shows that: (1) the total carbon emissions from the building operational stage in the YRD region increased by 163.63%, of residents' disposable income and energy consumption contributed the most. (2) In terms of decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and income growth, rural residential buildings (RR) outperform urban residential buildings (UR) and public buildings (PB). (3) According to the dynamic simulation, the operational carbon emission in the YRD region is expected to peak at 498.18-504.83 Mt MtCO(2) between 2030 and 2035. (4) The peak of PBs and URs in Nanjing, Suzhou and some third- and fourth-tier cities, and RRs in eastern and central cities in the YRD will occur at the latest, necessitating close monitoring. These findings can serve as a basis for developing scientific and reasonable building emission reduction policies in a multilevel governance context.