Extreme value analysis of the number of student absences in Jiangsu, China: Based on extreme value theory

Attendance absences have a substantial impact on student's future physical and mental health as well as academic progress. Numerous personal, familial, and social issues are among the causes of student absences. Any kind of absence from school should be minimized. Extremely high rates of student absences may indicate the abrupt commencement of a serious school health crisis or public health crisis, such as the spread of tuberculosis or COVID-19, which provides school health professionals with an early warning. We take the extreme values in absence data as the object and attempt to apply the extreme value theory (EVT) to describe the distribution of extreme values. This study aims to predict extreme instances of student absences. School health professionals can take preventative measures to reduce future excessive absences, according to the predicted results. Five statistical distributions were applied to individually characterize the extreme values. Our findings suggest that EVT is a useful tool for predicting extreme student absences, thereby aiding preventative measures in public health.