Economic performance of exporting sectors: Evidence for manufacturing in Brazil

We investigated the resilience of exporting manufacturing sectors during the Brazilian domestic recession (2014-2016) using data from various sources at the Brazilian state-sector level. We propose a new identification strategy that gauges a sector's exposure to the recession by examining its current position in the international demand cycle, deemed exogenous from the viewpoint of a local exporter in Brazil. Following the two-year Brazilian recession, we observe a persistent negative effect on exporting sectors that are more reliant on domestic economic activity (and thus more vulnerable to the domestic recession) than those less reliant on domestic economic activity (less exposed to the domestic recession). Sectors with lower labor productivity and higher technological intensity were less resilient during the domestic recession, as revenues declined and financing costs increased substantially. Given the critical role of exports in regional economic growth, this study contributes to the formulation of public policies by documenting the economic performance of exporting sectors during periods of economic stress.