Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics, influencing factors of land use carbon emissions, and low-carbon development in Hubei Province, China

Against the backdrop of global warming, carbon emissions have become a major concern. Carbon emissions from land use (CELU) play a significant role in shaping the efforts to reduce carbon emissions and achieve carbon neutrality. Using the China Land Cover Dataset (CLCD) alongside socioeconomic data, we conducted comprehensive CELU calculations for Hubei Province. Our approach involves integrating a Markov time transfer matrix to delineate the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of CELU, employing the Tapio elastic adaptation model to analyze the decoupling of CELU from economic development, and leveraging geographic detectors to identify the primary influencing factors and their interactions, both internally and externally. Subsequently, we formulated recommendations for low-carbon development in response to our findings. The key results are as follows. (1) Between 1995 and 2019, the total CELU in Hubei Province exhibited a consistent increase, characterized by an initial acceleration in growth followed by a gradual slowdown. (2) During the same period, Hubei Province witnessed multiple types of CELU decoupling, with weak decoupling emerging as a prevailing trend. (3) The explanatory power (q-values) of both internal and external factors influencing the CELU in Hubei Province ranged from 0.179 to 0.935. Moreover, the interaction results for these factors exceeded 0.5, indicating a significant overall effect. This study presents a low-carbon development strategy that offers a robust scientific basis for government policymakers to craft emission reduction strategies. Additionally, it serves as a valuable reference for fostering long-term high-quality socioeconomic development.