Failure Probability-Based Dynamic Instability Evaluation of the Long Span Steel Arch Bridge Subjected to Earthquake Excitations

Instability is one of the major failure modes of long span arch bridges, and its possibility of occurrence will be increased as triggered by earthquake excitations. However, the randomness of each ground motion causes the difficulty in achieving a reliable assessment of the safety of the bridges in regard to its stability issue based on certain time history analysis. Therefore, a failure probability-based instability evaluation method and corresponding instability damage index are proposed in this study to solve this problem, converting the deterministic analysis of a ground motion into a probability analysis of a group of random ground motions. The results find that the input direction, the velocity pulse and the pulse period of the ground motion have a significant impact on the stability of the bridge, while seismic moment and PGV/PGA ratio do not. The fragility curves show that the bridge has more than 60% probability of slight instability when input PGA reaches 0.2 g, 50% probability of moderate instability when input PGA reaches 0.6 g, and 20% probability of collapse when input PGA reaches 1.0 g. Moreover, when the PGA approaches 1.0 g, it is discovered that the velocity pulse and the pulse period can increase the chance of the occurrence of bridge instability by 20%-30%.