The spatiotemporal effects on ecosystem services supply-demand from industrial transformation and upgrading: Promotion or inhibition?

Traditional industrial development models have already caused an imbalance in ecosystem services supply and demand (ESSD). As a response strategy, industrial transformation and upgrading (ITU) are increasingly playing a vital role in regulating the relationship among ESSD. However, research on the interplay and impact of these two aspects remains insufficient. Therefore, a comprehensive analysis of the complex effects of ITU on ESSD is essential for industrial planning and environmental management. We developed a theoretical framework to interpret how ITU impacts ESSD, from the perspective of the natural-social-economic composite ecosystem. Using the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) as an example, we employed the Dynamic Spatial Durbin model (DSDM) to reveal the spatiotemporal effects of ITU on ESSD for four distinct types. The results indicated that from 2010 to 2021, the total supply of ecosystem services in the YREB exceeded the demand. The kernel density curves of ESSD ratios related to food production, carbon sequestration, water conservation, and soil conservation all show a trend of peak shifting to the bottom right over time. Additionally, pronounced spatial heterogeneity was observed in the ESSD ratios, with a notable clustering trend over time. Furthermore, the analysis of spatiotemporal effects decomposition revealed that ITU had a detrimental influence on the equilibrium between the supply and demand of food production, with this adverse effect intensifying and manifesting a stronger spatial spillover as time progressed. Positive effects were observed in the supply and demand for carbon sequestration and water conservation, both demonstrating significant spatial spillover effects. Steady negative spatiotemporal effects were noted for soil conservation supply and demand. Finally, we clarified the principal pathways through which ITU impacts ESSD. It offers policy recommendations for industrial development and ecosystem stewardship to mitigate the ESSD imbalance.