Drought identification and drought frequency analysis based on multiple variables

被引：0
|
作者：
Xu X. [1 ]
Xu K. [2 ]
Yang D. [3 ]
Li J. [1 ]
机构：
[1] General Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design, Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing
[2] Changjiang Institute of Survey, Planning, Design and Research, Wuhan
[3] Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing
来源：
Shuikexue Jinzhan/Advances in Water Science | 2019年 / 30卷 / 03期
基金：
国家重点研发计划;
关键词：
3-D joint probability; Copula function; Drought; Frequency analysis; Recurrence period; Southwest China;
D O I：
10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2019.03.007
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
Droughts have such essential features as long duration, large scope of influence, and spatio-temporal continuity, and a single variable or double variables were mostly considered in previous studies. By identifying arid patches and judging the continuity between two adjacent droughts based on the given threshold, a spatio-temporally continuous 3D identification method has been proposed for drought events, measuring a drought event in terms of 5 characteristic variables of duration, area, severity, intensity, and central location; the duration-area-severity frequency analysis method based on Copula function has been proposed. Taking Southwest China as an example, SPI drought indices are used to identify the drought events that lasted 3 months or longer in recent 52 years, which totaled 78. Among them, the most serious event from Aug. 2009 to Jun. 2010 has a recurrence period of 94 years. The comparison between the probability distribution function and the Copula function indicates that the 3 characteristic variables of duration, area and severity shall be simultaneously considered upon frequency analysis of drought events. © 2019, Editorial Board of Advances in Water Science. All right reserved.
引用
收藏
页码：373 / 381
页数：8
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