Can green finance reduce carbon emission? A theoretical analysis and empirical evidence from China

As an important way for China to achieve its dual-carbon goal, green finance has become the foundation for promoting high-quality economic development in China. In order to clarify the mechanism of green finance on carbon emissions, this paper puts green finance into the economic model and deduces the relationship between green finance and carbon emission reduction. This paper is based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China (excluding Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) from 2008 to 2019, using the individual fixed effect model, dynamical model, mediator model, and SDM model to study the impact of green finance on carbon emissions and its impact path of upgrading of the industrial structure and the development of science and technology based on the measurement of the green finance development index of each province by the entropy method. The findings show that the development of green finance can reduce carbon emission significantly, which can be sustained until at least the third phase and generates spatial spillover effects; regional heterogeneity analysis finds that the development of green finance shows geographical discrepancies: compared with the eastern and western regions, the development of green finance in central region can reduce carbon emissions more significantly; not only can the development of green finance directly reduce carbon emission, but also through the upgrading of industrial structure and technological innovation. The research not only provides a new perspective and supplementary empirical evidence for understanding the carbon emission reduction effect of green finance, but also offers some useful references for green finance to contribute to carbon emission reduction. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2024.