ISO 9001 certification forecasting models

Purpose - ISO 9001 certification is nowadays considered to be one of the most effective tools that can be adopted for guiding the management of Quality Systems. The stunning growth observed by these standards all over the world confirms a strong polarization of enterprises' interest in this practice. Owing to the wide incidence of this phenomenon, a deep investigation of ISO 9001 diffusion over time is of mandatory importance. The research here reported covers the development of statistical models in order to characterize the ISO 9001 certification evolution on a country basis, as well as worldwide. Design/methodology/approach - Based on the pioneering results obtained by Saraiva and Duarte, an attempt is now made to: identify clusters of countries, according to their ISO 9001 evolution patterns; characterize the worldwide ISO 9001 certification evolution; identify which are the main evolution perspectives for ISO 9001 diffusion; identify significant variables that may influence ISO 9001 quality management systems diffusion; develop mathematical models in order to characterize the ISO 9001 certification evolution on a country-by-country basis. Findings - The research carried out allowed one to analyze the worldwide evolution of ISO 9001 certification and suggest new prediction models for the diffusion of quality management systems certification at different geographical realities. Originality/value - This paper covers the development of statistical models in order to characterize the ISO 9001 certification evolution on a country basis, as well as worldwide.