Probable storm motion in the Bay of Bengal in April and May

Using data of cyclonic storm tracks for the period 1891 to 2000 over Bay of Bengal an attempt is made to find out the probable storm track and probable latitude of crossing of storms in pre-monsoon months of April and May. It has been found that in pre monsoon season the predominant direction of motion of storm is north-northeast in April and north in the case of May. In the month of April initial formation of storm mostly determines the location of crossing whereas in the case of May such prediction is not reliable. The relation between longitudes and latitudes of storm positions is expressed in terms different mathematical expressions during April and May. In the month of April whether the storm is in the easterly or in the westerly regime, the storm track is mostly parabolic. But in the case of May when the storm is wholly under the control of westerly regime, the tracks are in the form of logarithmic curves whereas when they are in easterly regime and then caught under westerly regime they are parabolic.