An adequate supply of qualified research and development (R&D) personnel is an important precondition for a government policy that aims for a strongly knowledge-intensive economic growth. As in many other OECD countries, there is great concern in The Netherlands about meeting this crucial condition in the next decades. This article tries to show to what extent this current concern is justified. For that purpose, forecasts of future supply and demand for research manpower in the science and engineering fields (including agriculture and health) have produced, extending to the year Sensitivity analyses show that the forecasts are not very sensitive to alternative assumptions on economic growth, investments, replacement demand and labour supply. From a methodological point of view the forecasting approach differs from the more traditional manpower forecasting. Firstly, the demand for R&D personnel is split up into an increase in total employment for R&D manpower (expansion demand) on the one hand, and, on the other hand, the need for replacements for researchers who retire, die or switch to other occupations (replacement demand). Expansion and replacement demand are considered in three sectors of R&D work: universities, research institutes and private enterprises. Expansion demand and replacement demand together determine the job openings for newcomers. These job openings are confronted with the supply of new R&D manpower, which is largely determined by the output of the educational system. The confrontation of demand and supply forecasts shows that, in general, severe shortages of R&D manpower will result if there are not adequate manpower policy adjustments. The article closes with a discussion of the policy implications of the expected disequilibria in the market for R&D manpower.
