RISK OF ENTERING NURSING-HOMES FOR LONG VERSUS SHORT STAYS

Research on the risk of nursing home use has generally not distinguished between risk for long versus short stays. This paper presents an analysis of data from the 1982-84 National Long-Term Care Surveys to identify characteristics of disabled persons that predicted one or the other type of stay. Measures that are recognized to be strong predictors of nursing home use in general, such as dependencies in activities of daily living and cognitive impairment, were not significantly associated with admission for short stays. Results from the multi-variate analysis were also used to make projections of lifetime risk of long and short stays. Approximately one-third of lifetime nursing home risk applies to stays of 90 days or less.