Forecasting on Ecological Security of Zhalong Wetland Nature Reserve based on Gray Theory

Based on field survey data and statistics of Zhalong wetland natural reserve, gray correlation model was used to comprehensively analyze and forecast ecological security of zhalong. According to "Response - Pressure - State" model, a eco-security assessment system was built which contains 32 indictors such as human activities, regional development index, etc. The results showed that: Zhalong Wetland ecological security index varied from 0.6852-0.7951 from 2015-2022. The index of ecological security alternated "safer" from "early warning". Upward trend of ecological security benefited from implementation of policies from the response subsystem.