A PROBABILISTIC METHOD FOR THE EVALUATION OF THE PERFORMANCE OF WIND-DIESEL ENERGY-SYSTEMS

This paper describes a probabilistic method for predicting the performance of autonomous wind-diesel energy systems based on statistical data of the system load and the wind speed. The statistics of the diesel plant loading, which is the initial system load net the wind generation are calculated. Expected annual wind and dieseL energy production as well as fuel consumption and cost are calculated. In order to retain acceptable service reliability, the operation of the wind-diesel system is constrained by the requirement that the wind generation must not exceed a certain percentage of the system load. This requirement introduces interdependence between the wind generation and the system toad which is taken into account in the derivation of the statistics of the diesel plant loading. The performance of the deveLoped method is demonstrated with computational results. An example of obtaining the optimum wind penetration to an already existing diesel system is also presented.