THE RUSSIAN-FEDERATION - POSSIBLE DISINTEGRATION SCENARIOS

The possibility that the Russian Federation may disintegrate like the Soviet Union has been the subject of much debate for the past 2 years. In the disintegration scenarios, the most critical factors usually cited include weakness and indecisiveness of the central authorities, different economic conditions in the various regions and their diverse interests and priorities, the ambitions of local elites often drawn from the old nomenklatura, and ethnic and religious divisions. This article examines scenarios of ''explosion'' and ''implosion,'' that is, the process of disintegration beginning either at the country's center or in its provinces.