YOUTH COHORTS AND POLITICAL UNREST IN SOUTH-KOREA

South Korea's population is currently passing through an age-structure transition featuring the emergence of a high proportion of young adults, those in the 15-24 age range. This paper describes the effect of this transition on political stability in South Korea, and uses population projections to show the potential effect of age-structure change, and discusses the efforts of the government to counteract negative features of this impact. A growing awareness among population scholars of the relation of age-structure to political instability has led them to note that in many countries unrest arises when the proportion of young adults is larger than 20 percent. Given that proportion as a possible danger level, it is projected that for South Korea as a whole, and for most provinces, the danger is almost over. However, proportions above 20 percent will likely remain in Seoul and Pusan for three or four years more. Unrest among students and young workers over the past seven years may be seen as a not surprising result of the youth bulge, and decline in levels of unrest may be expected in the relatively near future. © 1990.