USING SCENARIOS TO EXPLORE FUTURE ENERGY DEMAND IN INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES

We present three scenarios of OECD average sectoral energy intensities in the year 2010. These represent the direction in which current and expected trends seem to be moving; what might happen if energy efficiency were given a high priority by governments and the private sector; and what might be achieved if restraining energy use became a very high priority for public policy (eg if CO2 emissions were recognized as a serious problem). The scenarios delineate an important (if somewhat vague) boundary between a relatively easily attainable improvement in efficiency and a more problematical level of change. With a mixture of pricing and other policies, they suggest that OECD primary energy use in 2010 could be 20-25% less than currently seems likely (or about equal to demand in 1989) if fairly determined efforts were made. To increase that reduction to 40-45% would be very challenging, but not impossible.